Housing prices in opposing experts, whether born

 Live Interview: Housing prices in opposing experts whether born?
2009   4   22   Source: NetEase Beijing is now public property
the most attention, the biggest in Beijing view the high prices did not fall. Beijing Club ASTRI issued the After listing a large number of affordable housing, real estate market price cuts will be real. This is the report issued after the entire community of public opinion is also a heavy Mr. Cao Jianhai
interview Background: the capital, the public is most concerned about, the biggest in Beijing view the high prices did not fall. Beijing Academy of Social Sciences published the still rising, housing prices rose far more than income, called on the government land price drop, saying the real estate bust is unlikely to improve this year, to a large number of affordable housing in 2010 after the listing, the real estate market, the real price will appear. It is reported issued after the entire community of public opinion is also a heavy ups and downs of the market environment changes, we have become not cool, and some impetuous. as the media, we sincerely hope that people will return to consider a relatively pure space.
Today, Netease real estate professor invited Mr. Cao Jianhai Academy of Social Sciences . to live, the exclusive decryption Moderator: Good afternoon users, the current figure in sight we have invited Professor of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Mr Cao.
Mr Cao: Good afternoon netizens.
Moderator: By 2010, after listing a large number of affordable housing , the real estate market, the real price will appear. This argument is too general and lack of support in more detail?
Mr Cao: This is the direction of a large report, this report should be said that the decline in housing prices in the protection of basic sustenance housing market, and all over the country in 2007, when prices are too high because 24 of the State Council issued a document calling for expansion of low-income, 08 in all major cities nationwide beginning of the introduction of the protection of housing construction plan, all this time last year protection of the city have issued their own housing plan, the proportion of high-security room to see who, who can reflect the people's livelihood, last year's real estate development policy can best embody the opinion of the period, due to financial crisis, China's export industries, real estate have been a big blow, to maintain growth as our most important task for 2009, as economic growth anywhere to be found in our country, almost did not find a new impetus, and later put the power to 4 trillion on government investment projects, But the government alone is not enough to pull the national income growth is still on the search of real estate-led growth is the easiest, as long as prices hold the volume to maintain housing, pull the economy is still the most provincial strength, because a house once developed, its economy will bring, pre-construction, building materials, the back of the home, including appliances pull is very large, China is now in the urbanization, many people with housing needs, it is to focus on real estate, into the real estate itself is not wrong to look into what kind of house, the security room is the real estate, residents from the building is real estate, but is now banned, the unit self just like real estate, the central authorities in Beijing can be solved by units of employee housing from the housing problems in other cities over the Shanghai enterprises to encourage their development of affordable housing, but now it seems, the Government's focus is on maintain prices, the real estate developers as the main subject as the maintenance, although the Ministry of Construction has proposed a 9 billion of affordable housing, this seems this is the greatest strength of the impact of house prices, but the extent to which the impact of protection of housing housing, which also depends on the attitude of the government, we have recently tried to see the local government's rescue, and even some local officials are not required to work, as long as to sell, in some places is the problem accounts, such as deductible personal Chongqing income tax approach, relations between local governments and developers bundle, in fact, this also shows that the life of the local government is also in the real estate a great relationship, and it is the strategic partnership of real estate, is the relationship between interests of the chain, so that rescue background, both want to protect the room price is almost impossible to suppress, because the protection of housing scheme, you can achieve a variety of ways, you can buy a house developers, developers want to sell the house five thousand ten thousand, but not sell, the government can 7m8 thousands to buy, and then for the protection of housing, this can be considered the task of achieving the security room, out of government last November, can not necessarily buy the new, supposedly the Government should buy into this last, to other development business barely time to buy the lowest price, which is beneficial to the Government and the public, but later issued a series of developers to save the policy, basically led around by Ren, with their the introduction of interest-based policy, 1m3 month increased because of large credit basically completed the whole task, but we had said that at least 5 trillion, so that the delivery will continue to increase this year, this input led to a trillion in the first three quarters of funds into the real estate industry, so now developers have been largely alleviated, eased since price is no longer the Ministry of Construction also requires local governments, some local affordable housing and to the ICAC rent plans, the limit room canceled, the actual Beijing, Shanghai, these prices are too high because of large cities, residents grievances large and building hope in the country abolished the Ministry of affordable housing price, housing price is too high There the suspects off the city, in fact, real estate price is the most hated room to expand the limit housing supply is also beneficial to the public, affordable housing prices in Beijing are too high and expanding the supply or the benefit of the people, because the business Housing is still too high, it seems that a large number of local government will protect the housing built through this to evaluate the price, from the look on the position of local interests, they will reduce this large supply, or through the acquisition of developers house approach to every one, by every one to reduce the impact of real estate prices, I think, this is the future of the mainstream, so it comes due in 2010 can protect a large number of housing market, able to put down the price, I doubt the performance of local This attitude of the Government and the State Council, such support, it is difficult to like 07 or 24, early 08's when the text is difficult to embody the kind of policy, reflecting public opinion, including the central government policy is now largely sat developers there, as to be placed on a secondary public interest, the capital growth into the mainstream, so I am not optimistic about the view.
Moderator: As the Blue grant of publications, developers and experts also had a relatively large controversy was represented by Ren denunciation of many developers, you feel as the Academy of Social Sciences at what they should stand?
Mr Cao: The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is also a State Party Central Committee and State Council think-tank institutions, in order to advise the party's principles and policies and programs for the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, assume the same functions, if at times the Government and the public in the position deviation of the time, the Government must be an error, rather than the public , the real position of standing in public is the best embodiment of the party and state positions, in turn, a number of officials of local authorities in the interests of class, this time standing on the developer side, even when standing on the opposite of the public, we, as such studies institutions, or should stand in the position of the public, rather than the position of local government, local government itself to do real estate grab big profits, if the side is standing a few people standing on the side, I think it must stand on the Public Academy of Social Sciences position, so that really stand in the party and the government side. I think it is not enough anti-corruption efforts, leading to a large number of corrupt officers and the party and government were mixed, some of their views, and do not represent the views of the party and government.
chair people: Do you think they will put the future of real estate reports you?
Mr Cao: Beijing Academy of Social Sciences I am in favor of the report, and his views with me in 2006 Capital Development Forum, Beijing issued a prices will come down after the Games, down cycle is 4 years down range is more than half, it should be said that 2008 should be verified down my view, the report of Beijing, and I think many of my report should be consistent So I saw this report is in favor of, I think Beijing's position reflects the position of the public, reflecting the position of most people, this is the right attitude Academy of Social Sciences, so I support this report , of course, the report touches on the interests of developers, because developers finally created a rebound may view this report as lead, leading people to hold stocks in 2009 there wait and see attitude, which is a huge blow to the developer, pre-set bail because of the policy, expansionary monetary policy, 4 trillion rescue plan, together with the Spring Festival this year, a technical rebound, trading volume has a technical rebound in prices, coupled with the 5 rate cuts, does allow consumers to purchase Housing costs fell by buyers, including developers, funding chain was too tight and deep discounts to large state-owned enterprises buy factors, but also part of the developers of the momentum factor, the momentum factors also played an important role, these general factors constitutes a rebound, but the rebound still has water inside it, and they painstakingly created by Indian summer, he was very worried about a negative voice, bad voice from China Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing Academy of Social Sciences Blue Book My view is not to judge this year, but I judge that after two years as the area of Beijing, in particular, housing prices in cities have 4m5 price, for investors, is now no doubt that if some urgent need of housing as a child to school, get married, we did a survey last year, the general is urgent need of housing a small second-hand housing units, not to 一手房 purchase, Beijing's 一手房 is not rigid requirements, Ren important point is a rigid demand, my determine the rigidity of demand is a bed, but outside the room size is completely flexible, how much room can be put down to bed, only bed is rigid, so a bed is rigid, but the room is perfectly elastic, is closely related with the price, as demand for property speculation is not rigid, it is more up more to buy, the more up when the Housing larger volume when it is clear that when speculators entered, this time is not real demand, and speculators need to buy this house, and is equivalent to the purchase, the purchase is intended to sell at high prices, this time is the transfer between providers, and no real demand, and only rising house rise, the more up more to buy. Such a rebound face of such a negative voice, said to be furious developers can, for scholars, but one word, for developers, this year's profit plan would be spoiled, so I did not prices this year to forecast specific, if the month of this year, such a large scale as 1m3 put money, people are worried about hyperinflation, this time might be taken out of the stock market deposits, or to buy a house hedge, in order to prevent property further diluted out by the government, which also shows that the Government is now running a large-scale currency is extremely irresponsible, and have very serious consequences, at least for the current situation is a disguised through (in rent) means rate of plundering public wealth, to support the Our 4 trillion to support the revitalization of some of our industry, this is very irresponsible.
Moderator: You, for your strong support for the position of the public, even if the position of the developer into the opposite You still want the firm, there will be pressure on you?
Mr Cao: I have always been the position since 2006, I was never too far low, I think developers have not dared to put my opponent for a debate, they thought that Dai Jianzhong how not previously been engaged in real estate, easily knocked down, he actually was a staunch old intellectuals, but in fact the current real estate issues have no need to discuss, but in fact is the two points, a representative of public opinion One is the interests of representatives of the extreme point of view, as long as no one said a word, people immediately know which side he is, and has (Dai Jianzhong) that view, conscience as a scholar as long as there are very easy, but many policy of engaging people were carried away, especially carried away by the State Council are engaged in, carried away by the media are engaged in, which side do not know the real estate in China has not been discussed more thoroughly than it has, Cheng Siwei, the former carried out a period of He has not qualified to rhetoric, and as a scholar, he is very failure.
Moderator: We understand that some developers recently a number of well-known companies or organizations, also have a report with the Government, the Government may have to be more support, including the proposed Ye Hao, how do you see?
Mr Cao: developers are greedy interest groups, we have a community to prosper, it will slowly pursue spiritual or other needs, but in China is such a market economic system, has access to huge profits of the group, it is still hoped to obtain greater benefits, made a lot of money as before, and now may be slowly in the public interest to do more things, it would appear that they are greedy , the real estate is a totally labor department, it is also no funding, and it is totally dependent on bank loans in the past even made some money, that is completely looted public property, but basically, after plundering the private developers, including interest groups, officials point out, such a company is earning every penny looted from the public hand, if the developers and the public loss of wealth of wealth actually add up to zero, the real estate industry to promote economic part of the wealth created by growth, it is also by design, building materials, decoration, household appliances created by these sectors, real estate development industry, it simply does not create any, it is a predatory industry, it is relatively easy to make money, so a large number of officials involved in Among them, it is between the government and established a very close relationship, this is a very powerful interest groups, they continue to lobby the government, now save the developer has been referred to the high capital growth, so very easy to move the central level, China's real estate policy is now facing a new winter, this winter is reflected in the market is constantly introduced to rescue the market, prices will continue to raise, all government real estate policy will fall on him, some time before the rate cut, lowering buyers may have tax benefits, and now developers to offer this price to eat this, so people are very disgusted about this, and now this Indian summer is a transient phenomenon, the people on the government bailout of the developers greed began to resist the action started, the power of the mainstream of this resistance, the Government's rescue price increases are not any developers mainstream, the mainstream eventually to be eliminated.
Moderator: turnover up short is the stage?
Mr Cao: Yes, because the policy of declining transaction costs, the original cost of the higher income people are joined together with a large state-owned enterprises to determine the real estate market has bottomed out, because now rescue center to make a lot of people the wrong impression, buy state-owned enterprises with large-scale lending, a lot of credit funds to enter the Indian summer for developers to create unique conditions created, the developer itself will create an atmosphere, manufacturing data, combined with media campaigns, Therefore, the original is not prepared to buy a house they had to come out and watch what happens the market, many people do not have independent minds, many people also inhaled the market, expanding the volume, we can not ignore the behavior of developers, fraud, in the sales office, meeting employment REIT prices, the net signed data is completely false, false events are now breaking out the mortgage, such as: Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai is very serious, Shanghai developers to house is sold directly to an intermediary, the intermediary in the secondary market promotion, the developer the funds by way of mortgage recovered, recovery of funds it will not engage after the new development, it will put into the stock market to make money, the stock market last year, if healthy, this part of the Bank loans money to the rich more than the rich, and credit is fundamental, although a quarter of consumer credit is only 900 million commercial loan to make a lot of industrial loans have come through a variety of ways the real estate market, real estate, pick up also The other cities watching the original capital of China, China's real estate companies began to invest money to solve once the developers started chain for another Fuzui Lian, began through the control disk, the structure by controlling the prices, again harm the people, the people do not eat it set, so look at Indian summer will soon be over.
Moderator: Your point of view or the impulse buyers who are currently proposed or keep their eyes open?
Mr Cao: Yes, keep their eyes open to think, in addition to money supply , in addition to local government officials, all other factors do not support housing prices, and now the real estate business and support their officials are clown, it can not change the general trend, large housing surplus will come down the momentum of the economy continue to decline , and now can not find a new growth point of China, the economy will continue to decline, public investment will not become a growth point, make up only temporarily down because the word bailout is a great time at the expense of, and ultimately to the public to foot the bill , if the Government to solve the next problem is a tax increase, and ultimately unsustainable fiscal policy, sub-word, must not become an economic growth point, the high real estate prices can not remain a new economic growth point, because it is predatory industry, bought a house full consumption is overdrawn, overdraft income was, in other areas lost power consumption, its economy is the negative things, now can not find a new growth point of China, the Chinese economy continues to decline is an inevitable trend No matter now how to say pick up, pick up just short of the technical and do not represent the future trend, the future trend of China will continue to fall, which guarantees housing and land prices down. a large gap between income and housing prices, income growth is currently not good, because the economy is not good, the trend shows a continuing decline in the trend of prices, this situation can not be changed.
Moderator: This year we look at the transaction, the transaction per week are not the same decrease in gains last year in the second half The views out of a few, Li Yang, director of the Academy of Social Sciences, who said before the Chinese economy should show between V-and U-type, certainly not the L-type, how do you see, the trend will not appear W type.
Mr Cao: W-type is reduced to low, early in 2008 down to the so-called bottom, and then played in March last year, the highest level, and then down, then that price is the same a few years later, this view I can not agree, at most annual income growth of 10%, 10% of economic growth can not be guaranteed, but the state has adopted policy of benefiting, the price if it is returned to the level of March 2008, the Beijing price earnings ratio is about 20 times, even if income has increased, to 2011, annual growth of 10%, if prices remain at this level, the income and house prices will remain at 15 times compared to about 15 times this is totally unsustainable, if the two hole in the housing units for 15 years before, the price is not supported, V-shaped rebound this year, V, after the words how to do is wait on the platform, I think this is unrealistic, because this year bailout policies constantly introduced, will remain a platform, so generally speaking should also be L-type, there will be a short down twists and turns, but the downward trend will change, perhaps there is a small short-term rebound is continuing to fall change, when in the end, almost 2m3 years, which will be in a very long plateau, which is 2011m2012 years will have.
Moderator: from now on is to buy a house or a group of visually impaired groups The Government should not introduce policies to help them?
Mr Cao: That depends on the government stand on, and if the government stands to maintain growth of 8% simple, this simply can not explain what, I went to the Canadian study, you of mining, and the forests are cut down, 50% of all the possible security problem is the resource cost of the damage completely, if at all costs to maintain growth and does not make sense, but only 8% of the total concept of what What is the welfare of the public which, if there are many ways to expand consumption, if the hands of the government have a lot of money, why not the government's distribution of products to the people, the people is the use of consumer goods process, one is to get through the purchase, after purchase to obtain , presented the way the Government can and they can expand consumption, expanding consumption is definitely not the Government to encourage people to buy a commodity at high prices, I think the expansion of consumption is simply a misunderstanding, so that consumers can use to expand consumption of more goods, more more medicines, more food, this situation can be achieved through two, one is to achieve a fair market consumption, Beijing's housing prices, such prices should not exceed 03m04 sales of affordable housing, I think in Beijing price level of around one thousand in 5m6, this is called fair trade purchase of houses, another way the Government allocated directly to the people, the people should be more applications, rather than as more personal consumption, I think it is also expansion of consumption, should be combined through a fair deal to achieve the government's transfer payments.
Moderator: Land and Resources recently issued the following departments in major cities nationwide land prices in 2008 situation analysis report, pointed out that the 2008 average sales price of commercial housing approximation 4,000 yuan mark to reach 3,919 yuan / square meter. This means that urban residents in the year one year without food or drink, only buy 4 square meters of commercial housing. on these data, you have any thoughts?
Mr Cao: Discussion of the recent real estate field, has been concentrated in housing prices and household incomes than the above, according to the conventional world press is 3 times more than some countries is 6 times, but in fact should be 6 times the upper limit of the national income, If it is 6 times, then more than half of household expenditure spent on housing, and housing consumption in general there are many parts, the purchase of principal and interest, other plumbing, heating, and even at home, these expenses consumer appliances, to include into this China price earnings ratio is very, very high, and now we are all naked house with the family income, Ren satisfied, very satisfied with the calculation of Beijing, why not consider the fund, the foreign housing is a good decoration housing, considering the fund, the room is actually a bare room with decoration prices even higher than before, Ren still not satisfied, if the median would be very low, no matter how Ren sophistry, in fact, is to show room price is not high, he even did not say how 30-year house prices rose, wages rose far less than the rate rise, he did not know when the last 78 years, a small courtyard housing is several thousand, not previously square meters concept, is now up to take 2m3 million more than the number of times, and now the discussion no matter how he is like on behalf of the people that house prices are not high, for he was in the rape of public opinion, and now people have an intuitive judgments, the price is high , and certainly they can not afford, this rape of public opinion, and now occupy the mainstream of the major media, occupied the main voice of the Boao Forum, I think this is a disgrace Long, Long standing who actually position, even an enemy of the people you so, I feel shame that the voice of this forum.
Moderator: I think the developers have a group of people are like that, he thinks Beijing is an international city, the old view that prices with the international standards.
Mr Cao: extreme absurdity, you can anywhere in the world is unique and the only factor to support housing prices in Beijing, Beijing jobs, money of the wealthy is to buy a house in Beijing , if not at work, he could not live here, he bought a set of by many, it is impossible to buy dozens of sets, is an investment to buy dozens of sets, the whole world to Beijing for the short term if the purchase of a housing, the work of a foreigner in Beijing is enough, if buying multiple sets must be the investment and speculative, must be transferred to the next house to house only, so as to location to emphasize the uniqueness of residents of Beijing to the world This attraction is very absurd, and only place you jumped, would attract speculators into the world, in turn, say the price is stable and if you can only attract people to work here, and a little upstart group This purchase is not as real estate development speed, so that the increase in sales volume is lower than the completion, which is destined for a long time in Beijing is a serious market in the pattern of excess, what could city development that is Business flicker, which is totally not credible, is also a metropolis Shanghai, Shenzhen is not the same metropolitan housing prices drop, Tokyo, Hong Kong is a metropolitan housing prices are down, house prices with economic trends are closely related, necessarily associated with the size of the bubble, big bubble in China must be broken, China hopes to maintain the bubble no matter who will be punished, it will become fun and excitement.
Moderator: Recently, many comments are saying that the Chinese people When the purchasing power of the Great Depression, the performance is very hot, that segment of time that some U.S. media have also organized a group showings, there will be future development of the Australian delegation to the Beijing market, do you think our domestic purchasing power is not as wide Housing prices in the world think that has staying power, so everyone's wallet drum, you can save the world of real estate?
Mr Cao: China is the world's largest country income gap, a few people grabbed most of the social wealth, their wallets are a few very rich drum, buy a house abroad is rich, the rich purse is very dark and the poor of the purse is very flat, very few people occupy the vast wealth of the society, very few people the sake of future generations of these people, the Anglo-American educational standards that much better, this is a legitimate demand, and some may be due to Anglo-American house prices are low, go there to real estate, this is speculative demand, but because the hands of the rich too much wealth, he consumption is limited, he can not buy a few hundred housing units, a housing every day living, this is no doubt, he bought more housing objective is to earn more money the so-called China's purchasing power, purchasing power of the rich in China, because it's consumption is limited, save up a lot of money to invest, to grab more benefits, most people have no money, buyers Mission also representing the rich, which is reflected by the consequences of China's income, the same ingot to the United States become a buyers digest, it does not understand the American consumer market, where to buy a house to pay property tax, property tax payment is very high, to that ingot to fail, it is impossible to make money, even after reading it to that school or to throw away the house.
Moderator: Can you talk about, you buy one now a commercial, it is the first of several suites.
Mr Cao: I have only one suite, 03 to buy, and then a set of housing investment is a shame, because that is not labor income, if, as scholars like me, I go fry room to obtain benefits, is entirely inconsistent with my position, I am opposed to real estate, real estate gain, the higher price you are buying a house from the hands of plunder, in fact, the role of speculators, not by working for the interests of I do not approve of this.
Moderator: We also found that many colleagues do not buy a house will also be affected around, we all buy a house, including the 80 now will be to guide the young friends, including Wang also He said that around the age of the first suite is 30m40, you say a few words on the young.
Mr Cao: The Chinese concept of home ownership, 03 years of rising house prices, buyers will be able to profit, so we strengthen the home Business concept, if the price is down, this idea of home ownership will be diluted, in fact, speaking to you, house prices do not rise to buy a house is not as good as rent, if prices trend down, buy a house is not worth the candle, will cause you loss, the key to the room trend, housing prices continue to rise if, buy a house just consider living, but also increase the value of consideration is, the key is to look at the trend of the economic cycle, the key now can not find China's economic growth North, so I like will return in 2003.
Moderator: because people think of economic problems, including the future devaluation of the RMB, the Chinese investment channels is still limited, and will select a number of real products, to prevent their the assets value, also has such a mental.
Mr Cao: The future is perhaps gain more consumer goods, is now a large-scale credit, the current absorbed by the stock market and real estate, if there is trouble in the next period, there must be social instability factors, capital will flow from the stock market and real estate consumer goods, consumer price inflation, this time you may think that is more conducive to investment in consumer goods, even if the recurrence of inflation, rising prices is difficult because of rising house prices has been completed, Now just waiting to come down, house prices rose an average of 03 times 3m4, far higher than the level of ordinary consumer goods, including the extent of the expansion of money supply, rising prices have completed the mission, unless we can also occur currency 3m4 times the rise, this time I think there may be price to rise, if you can not achieve this level of commitment, I think that even if money invested will pay a price, to pay a lot of consumer goods rose, the government will tighten monetary, then do not know price pressure could put the economy down, then more substantial with the economic oscillations, if the time the real estate market is still rising, there will be collapse of the message, absolutely can not pay high prices, I suggest that the Chinese government and people are should resist the high prices.
Moderator: You have the table before the state had recommended friends or friends in no hurry to live, not to short-term home.
Mr Cao: I feel that Select , to the healthy development of Chinese economy, China needs an environment of low prices, only prices lower, to implement China's urbanization, the majority of migrant workers, only temporary residence in the city, all who can not afford even leasing, Because their home is in rural areas, and income is very low, considering the new groups of migrant workers and the gap between house prices, house prices are with them 20 times this group can really true urbanization, China needs to lower prices environment, to college students also must rates down, rents are down, in order to reduce business costs, only the prices down, they are not to eat a bowl of 20 restaurants, of which 15 is too high prices, to a firm declaration of war to the high prices, as people have their own distinct position, not only should be for petty profits to sell their positions, as long as the position of standing on their side, the people will win .
Moderator: Thank you today to share with us the topic of so many wonderful, thank you for your house guest Netease, hope you have time to sit here and talk to you again.
Mr Cao: Netease users Comment is still very active today, materials are particularly pleased to be here, I hope you share our ...